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🍬 Plus: Candy slump | Sunday, October 25, 2026

1 big thing: New risks rising

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in his weekly C-Suite newsletter:

Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we're facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control.

• My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors.

Why it matters: It feels likely — not certain — that between now and 2028, we'll face society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks.

🔭 What we're facing: We've navigated single-shot crises like the financial meltdown of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020. This next year will be different. The real risk is a chain reaction: One shock sets off others — faster than we can process, and caused by AI dynamics we don't fully understand.

• Call it chain-reaction chaos.
• And that's against the backdrop of this age of post-processable velocity: The speed of change exceeds the ability of any individual, company, market or government to fully absorb, understand and respond.

The reason this scenario looks so likely is that so many obvious risks, all with relatively high probabilities, keep piling up. Any one of them will rock already highly volatile markets and politics:

1. 💻 Cyber chaos. This past week was a big flashing siren. AI-detected flaws in PHP, the code behind millions of websites, knocked government sites offline worldwide and prompted the National Security Agency to warn organizations to patch immediately or go dark. Major banks found unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts, some trying to take actions customers never asked for. And Anthropic's deputy chief information security officer, Jason Clinton, warned that as bad as the past several days had been, cyber threats will get "a lot worse before they get better." Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff quickly agreed, writing on X: "Code red." As Madison Mills reported for Axios, the AI companies and the banks are scrambling for "day after" planning, fully anticipating a bigger cyber hit in coming months. People at top AI companies tell me the chances are well above 50%.
2. 🫧 AI bubble bursts (partially). This doesn't feel like 1999, since giant companies with huge balance sheets are underwriting the AI boom. But that's also the problem. They're increasingly doing it with borrowed money: Goldman Sachs expects about a third of Big Tech's AI capital expenditure to be debt-financed this year. A bubble doesn't need to burst spectacularly to cause widespread economic and political pain. These companies are deeply intertwined, investing in, selling to and buying from each other. Look what happened with Meta this past week: It crushed its earnings, but then spooked the market by detailing the difficulties of raising capital to fund AI. Any sign of overbuilding … or companies underusing AI … or China catching up … or AI prices collapsing … or credit costs spiking … or the political backlash intensifying, and markets could tumble fast. A sharp correction feels like a 50%+ short-term scenario.
3. 🦾 AI hits true RSI. AI could get better, faster than almost anyone anticipates via recursive self-improvement (RSI). People inside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google see this unfolding now. This could be awesome long-term if we steer the technology smartly. But it could also prove wildly disruptive in 2027: More advanced AI would pose a more urgent threat to industries, companies and jobs. You could easily see this enticing Democrats to join Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in demanding a slowdown or full pause, which would rattle markets.
4. 🛢️ War expands, oil spikes. President Trump's aides believe he's likely to resume the Iran war post-election. The Iranians warn they would expand their targets in retaliation. The U.S. reduced staffing at embassies across the Middle East amid increased threats. Escalation feels more likely than not at the very moment oil supplies are tight and gas and diesel prices are very high. Imagine the economic pain of sustained $120-a-barrel oil.
5. 🏛️ An aging, unrestrained president. I want to be clear here: This isn't a political statement or Trump health appraisal. I'd write the same for Joe Biden. It's a simple, fact-based observation based on actuarial tables. Trump, age 80, heads into the next two years as the oldest person ever to be president. It's a medical certainty that the chances of mental decline and incapacitation rise dramatically in your 80s. Trump is much like Biden in that he doesn't have people around him who can level with him. The risk stretches from health episodes to judgments about war and the limits of presidential power.

The bottom line: It's easy to argue any one of these won't materialize. But when you add up this many risks, the overall chance of a crisis outside our direct control is spiking by the day.

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2. Part 2: What you can do

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Jim writes:

I spell this out not to scare you or cause you to throw up your hands and retreat from reality.

• You can only make wise decisions for your career, your life and your family if you're living in the future — understanding what's coming, and living these historic times with your head in the game.
• Axios' expert journalists are working hour by hour to be your clinical, useful guide to this head-spinning era.

Three very practical steps:

• 👀 Be aware: This is an exciting time to be alive. So learn about AI — the good, bad and ugly. And think more deeply about what you expect from your employer and elected representatives.
• 🔒 Be vigilant: This past week's Axios reporting about AI agents showed the importance of locking down your passwords. Store every account in a secure password manager and use a unique password for each one. Use passkeys where offered. Protect your email and phone with an authenticator app, since whoever controls those can reset everything else. And don't hand a password or login code to anyone who contacts you, human or AI agent.
• 🔭 Be ready: This past week also showed how AI is the market. So if you have a 401(k) or other investments, make sure to understand how concentrated you are in different sectors. Seek out smart diversification strategies. And find a few news sources, like Axios, that you can trust to make sense of all the craziness.

Share this column ... Let us know what you think: finishline@axios.com.

• 📈 If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Ask to join Jim's new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.

3. 💥 Trump's DOJ barrels into midterms

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

With just nine days until the midterms, the Trump administration is escalating its assault on two of the Justice Department's most sacred guardrails, Axios' Zachary Basu writes:

1. Independence from the White House.
2. Restraint before elections.

Why it matters: President Trump's DOJ has shattered the traditional calm of a pre-election period with a barrage of politically sensitive investigations, prosecutions and eleventh-hour efforts to influence the vote.

🏔️ Zoom in: The Justice Department's most aggressive election intervention yet came this week in Alaska, where a preemptive lawsuit seeks to delay certification of the state's U.S. Senate results — if the Democrat wins.

• DOJ argues that a second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse voters and siphon support from the Republican incumbent, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.
• Legal experts question the DOJ's authority to block certification of a state-run election, or how officials could determine voters' intentions without compromising ballot secrecy.

Zoom out: Alaska is just one front in an October offensive aimed at rooting out alleged election fraud, investigating prominent Democrats and re-litigating Trump's oldest political grievances.

• On Oct. 7, Trump established a White House committee to investigate alleged mortgage fraud by Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, authorizing DOJ personnel to participate in proceedings that could lead to her removal. Cook denies wrongdoing.
• On Oct. 12, federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) home and seized her cellphone as part of an investigation into possible immigration fraud. The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration is building a case to try to strip the Somali-born lawmaker of her citizenship, and ultimately deport her.
• On Oct. 15, DOJ sued California to block ballots from more than 20,000 suspected noncitizens. On Friday, prosecutors demanded that county officials segregate flagged ballots within 48 hours, warning of potential criminal liability.
• On Oct. 22, prosecutors unveiled an eight-count indictment against Virginia state Sen. Louise Lucas — a key figure in Democrats' redistricting efforts in that state — alleging she helped operate an illegal marijuana enterprise. Lucas denies wrongdoing.
• On Oct. 23, two former senior FBI officials were charged with lying to Congress about their roles in the Hunter Biden investigation.

👀 The big picture: The October blitz is unfolding alongside efforts to investigate or revive cases involving longtime Trump adversaries, including former CIA Director John Brennan, former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.

⚖️ In a statement to Axios, DOJ defended its election-related interventions, arguing that the California cases concern alleged misconduct in previous elections.

• The department called linking the Lucas and former FBI officials' cases to the midterms "a smear," noting that none of the defendants are on November ballots.

Go deeper.

4. 🛒 Data du jour: What's cheaper

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Jim Sergent/Axios

Food prices are up 2.5% since last September, but some grocery essentials are moving in the opposite direction, Axios' Jim Sergent reports from Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

• The average price of a dozen large eggs ($2.27) is down $4 since peaking at $6.23 in March 2025.

Share this chart.

5. 🗳️ 9 days out

Photo: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Former President Obama, 65, headlined a "Fighting for Ohio" midterm rally in Cleveland yesterday for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton (left) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

• 🥊 Obama said President Trump "should be on HGTV ... He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory — just gold everywhere."

Read on.

Photo: Umit Bektas/Reuters

A rainbow appears behind Air Force One as President Trump arrives at President Donald J. Trump International Airport in rainy West Palm Beach, Fla., on Friday evening.

• Read on: POTUS, FLOTUS cast their midterm ballots yesterday in West Palm Beach.

6. 📊 Poll du jour

Graphic: CBS News

7. 🎃 Candy slump

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Halloween candy sales are off to a slow start this year as U.S. consumers grapple with high living costs and eye-popping chocolate prices.

• Sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 compared with the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ, a market research firm. Sales were down 11.7% in September, erasing preseason gains Halloween candy enjoyed the previous two years, AP reports.

Go deeper.

8. ⚾ 1 fast thing: Brew Crew pitcher sets record

Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers strikes out Victor Mesa Jr. of the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning of Game 1. Photo: Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

The very first pitch of this year's World Series made history.

• Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob "Miz" Misiorowski threw a 103.5 mph fastball against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday — setting a new record for the fastest World Series pitch.
• The Chicago Cubs' Aroldis Chapman held the previous mark for the fastest Series pitch: 103.2 mph in the ninth inning of Game 2 in 2016.

🍻 The relentless Brew Crew was down four runs last night but stunned the Rays with a 5-4 comeback for a 2-0 World Series lead.

• The Rays host the Brewers in Tampa Bay for Game 3 tomorrow at 8 p.m. ET.

More on the record ... More on last night ... More on Miz.

It's time for business to get spooky...

Editor’s note

Happy (almost) Halloween. It wouldn’t be late October without a newsletter discussing the intricacies of everyone’s favorite Home Depot skeleton. Welcome to Morning Boo, our annual edition about the business of Halloween, from how the holiday has crept into the summer months, to the rising profession of porch stylists who make sure your stoop is vibier than your neighbor’s. Whip out the fake cobwebs, stock up on Sour Patch Kids, and light your Witches’ Brew Yankee Candle. We’re gettin’ spooky.

summer scaries

Halloween shopping starts during beach season now

Jim Watson/Getty Images

The spookiest thing about Halloween this year might be how long the candy was sitting in your neighbor’s basement. The haunted shopping season is no longer confined to October (or even the fall), with more Americans beginning to stock up on sweets, graveyard decor, and costumes as early as summer:

• Nearly half of Americans did some Halloween shopping before October last year, compared with just over a third a decade ago, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
• About 1 in 4 Americans did some Halloween shopping by early August this year.

Many retailers want you to start contemplating your plans for curating an eerie vibe in your neighborhood while shopping for beachwear. For instance, Home Depot dropped its “Halfway to Halloween” product lineup in April.

The spooky industrial complex is growing: Americans are projected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween items this year, up from $13.1 billion in 2023, according to the NRF. Stocking shelves with zombie masks early allows retailers to fill the foot-traffic gap between July 4th and the back-to-school rush.

Then there’s the logistics reason

Stores start ordering the next year’s ghoulish inventory from overseas around the time you start turkey shopping, all so it can arrive by the time American-flag-patterned sunglasses displayed get taken down. Experts say displaying Halloween wares early helps retailers avoid the most spine-chilling scenario: getting stuck with a bunch of unsold ghost costumes haunting their warehouses on Nov. 1.

It also minimizes storage costs, since the sooner you buy that super tall skeleton, the more time it spends in your home, instead of taking up space in retailers’ warehouses.

Plus, who says the summer itself can’t be haunted? In recent years, a social media phenomenon called Summerween has spurred consumers to buy spooky decor for their summertime activities. Retailers jumped on the trend, with Spirit Halloween launching a Summerween product line featuring items like a creepy clown ice cream cone floatie.—SK

STOOPING TO A NEW LEVEL

These go-getters are gourd-getters

Porch Pumpkins

Pumpkin patches can be fun, but what if you don’t have time, you’re allergic to hay, or you accidentally snap the stem off every pumpkin you try to pick up? Well, capitalism’s got you covered. Porch decorating businesses are popping up all over the country, ready to bring the pumpkin patch to your doorstep.

Squashbucklers: From delivery to assembly, porch stylists—also known as pumpkin concierges—will handle the whole decoration process. Their fees range from a couple hundred dollars to $2,000, depending on how jealous you want to make your neighbors. They may even source more exotic fare, like those gourds that look like they were designed by Dr. Seuss. People are willing to pay:

• Curated Pumpkin, which started in Southern California in 2024, grew its business by 5x in 2025, per the Wall Street Journal.
• Texas-based Porch Pumpkins, launched in 2020, now reportedly makes six figures and has started to franchise, Business Insider reported.

Some porchscape professionals will even clean things up for you after the holiday, unless you want to leave those jack-o’-lanterns out until New Year’s to really give your overzealous homeowner’s association something to cry about.

’Tis the season: Porch decorating is basically the spooky equivalent of professional Christmas light installation, which is now a $3.5-billion-a-year industry, according to Market Report Analytics.—BC

living rent-free

‘Monster Mash’ still makes a bunch of $ each year

Dick Clark Productions

Forget about alternative investments and get in the studio. All you need to do is create something like “Monster Mash,” which still rakes in a steady revenue stream, decades after its 1962 release.

“I have been paying the rent for 36 years with this one song,” co-writer and performer Bobby “Boris” Pickett—aka the Mariah Carey of Halloween—told the Memphis Commercial Appeal in 1998 (Pickett died in 2007). To think something so lucrative was written in just a few hours:

• Between streams, commercials, licensing, and film usage, “Monster Mash” could be making $1 million in annual revenue, Billboard estimated in 2023.
• It’s been the oldest track atop the Halloween streaming charts in recent years, just behind “Thriller” (1982) but ahead of “Ghostbusters” (1984) and “Spooky, Scary, Skeletons” (1996), per Billboard.

Since Pickett and co-writer Leonard Capizzi have both died, their royalties have gone to their family members, who get more than just a big check with every Halloween season: “Every single year my entire life, I get to hear my grandfather’s voice for a month,” Pickett’s grandson told Billboard.—ML

history lesson

How we got the Skelly Extended Universe

Home Depot

In the summer of 2020, Halloween fanatics were already mourning their favorite holiday, predicting that Covid restrictions would prevent trick-or-treating. It was the perfect environment for a towering knight in no armor to swoop in and save the beloved day: Home Depot’s $300, 12-foot-tall skeleton, nicknamed Skelly, was a viral hit, selling out everywhere before Halloween even arrived.

But it wasn’t just a one-season wonder. Skelly has returned to Home Depot shelves each year, and many members of the Skelly fandom leave him up year-round. Skelly helped set record Halloween sales for the hardware chain for at least the first four years of the bone man’s life. This year, the company even released a souped-up, app-enabled Skelly for $379 that lets you record ominous greetings.

The bone brigade: In one Facebook group for Skelly owners with more than 298,000 members, posts crowd the feed with tips for installation, photos of front yards, and explanations of how folks skirt HOA rules to keep Skelly up all year (spoiler: by dressing him up in other holiday clothing).—MM

wait, what?

Your Reese’s has changed for legal reasons

Reese's

Your mom was right: You should check your Halloween candy. Reese’s pumpkin candies now have a disclaimer on their packaging that reads, “Carving not on actual product.” While parent company Hershey hasn’t confirmed it was because of a recent lawsuit, the change from its previous note (“Decorating Suggestion”) came after a group filed a $5 million class-action lawsuit against the chocolate giant for deceptive marketing.

The group claimed the image on the front of the packaging, which showed the Reese’s pumpkin with a traditional jack-o’-lantern face carving, was misleading. The original complaint was filed in May 2024 and dismissed, but the plaintiffs filed an amended complaint in December 2025. The judge dismissed it again last month, but it appears that the company wants to cover its bases before more drama arises and its HQ gets covered in toilet paper by mischievous teens.—MM

fun and games

Here are festive takes on some classic Morning Brew fun-and-games offerings. Like usual, all answers are in their own section below…

Get into the Spirit

Spirit Halloween stores, much like a text from an ex, seem to materialize out of nowhere. But there is a pattern: Buildings that lose certain tenants are converted into seasonal stores more than others.

We have a list of 10 previous tenants of Spirit Halloweens this year. Can you guess which five are the most frequently transformed into Spirit Halloweens?

1. Best Buy
2. Five Below
3. Big Lots
4. Sears
5. Planet Fitness
6. JoAnn Fabrics
7. Five Iron Golf
8. Party City
9. Rite Aid
10. Duane Reade

Three Halloween-themed Products and a Lie

Three of these products are real, and one is faker than the blood in Carrie. Can you spot the odd one out?

1. Zombie Sour Patch Kids
2. Taco Bell Franken-Tacos
3. Jack in the Box Munchie Meal of Horror
4. Starbucks Black Cat Frappuccino

Companies that can be Halloween costumes

Do you like a costume with layers? For instance, if your name is Molly, you can dress up as Molly, the animatronic bird that Kelly Clarkson went to war over, and then you’re Molly dressed as Molly. (Did we pitch this to Morning Brew writer Molly Liebergall? Maybe.)

So, here are five ideas along those lines:

1. OpenAI: You wear an Allen Iverson jersey. Every so often at the party, you clap like you want a pass, because you are open.
2. Eli Lilly: You’re an Eli Manning jersey and a lily tucked behind your ear away from being Eli Lil(l)y.
3. Caterpillar: You dress as a caterpillar (living creature) inside a cardboard version of a Caterpillar (heavy machine). You’re a caterpillar no matter how you look at it.
4. General Electric: Dress as a lightbulb and throw on a military jacket, then salute every lamp you see.
5. Starbucks: You dress as a star and tape fake dollar bills to yourself. Then, get everyone’s names wrong all night.

Dressing up?

Send us your (family-friendly) Halloween costume ideas and we will share the best ones.

Submit your response here.

brew's best

ICYMI, use your Sunday morning to get caught up on some of our most-clicked recent recs:

• The top turkey sandwich in a head-to-head battle between sub shop chains.
• Three tips for becoming a great conversationalist.
• The year’s best inventions, according to Time.
• The colors paint companies expect you’ll see everywhere next year.
• Our favorite sleep mask.**

answers

The most-converted Spirit Halloween locations (and the number of said conversions) are: JoAnn Fabrics (153), Big Lots (103), Party City (100), Rite Aid (88), and Sears (31). (Source)

For Three Halloween-themed Products and a Lie, we made up the Taco Bell Franken-Tacos.